Image for The likelihood of a Hung Parliament ...

First published August 10

Will Hodgman has a problem. It’s Rebecca White. The latest EMRS poll ( HERE ) reveals a 9-point lead over Will in Preferred Premier.

Says EMRS ...

The latest poll was the second to be conducted since the resignation of Bryan Green in March 2017 and the appointment of Rebecca White as the new Labor leader.

Respondents were asked to choose between Premier Will Hodgman and Rebecca White as to who was currently their preferred Premier of Tasmania.

For the first time since May 2009, Premier Will Hodgman received a lower level of support as preferred Premier than the Labor leader.

In the latest poll, there was again a decrease in those nominating Premier Hodgman as their preferred candidate, down 5 points from May 2017 to 37% currently. Support for Rebecca White as the preferred option stood higher at 48%, a significant increase of 9 points from 39% in May 2017.

The latest poll confirms that support for Rebecca White as preferred Premier is considerably stronger than that for her predecessor (up by 28 points from the 20% nominating Bryan Green in March 2017).

It also saw a further decrease in the proportion of respondents unwilling to nominate either of the two leaders, with 15% currently of the view that neither Premier Will Hodgman nor Rebecca White
was their preferred choice as Premier of Tasmania (down 14 points from 29% in March 2017).

The poll reveals there is an increasing likelihood of a hung Parliament. A poll must be held before May 19 next year. As EMRS says ...

After excluding undecided voters, support for the Liberal State Government has decreased marginally by 2 points since the last poll was conducted in May 2017 to 37% currently.

Support for the Labor Party showed no change since May, remaining at 34% in the latest poll. Greens support also remained steady, increasing only slightly by 1 point to 16%.

Among the remaining decided voters, 6% stated they would vote for an independent candidate if a State election were to be held today, while support for the Jacqui Lambie Network (JLN) was measured for the first time in the August 2017 poll and stood at 5%.

Will must be very worried ...

*Lindsay Tuffin has been a journo since 1969, mainly in Tassie apart from a few years elsewhere in Oz, and in Pomland where he had a brief stint as a youth worker and where for five years he edited ‘Buzz’ - a magazine dealing with church and social issues and which was beaten in audit circulation in the Specialist Interest category by Aero Modeller magazine ...!

The definitive analysis of psephologist Dr Kevin Bonham HERE … Let’s put that in the historic context drawn from other states.  It’s very simple: preferred premier is an indicator that usually strongly favours incumbents.  When established state premiers trail as preferred leader in Newspoll (never mind by eleven points), they either lose the next election or are removed by their own party.  EMRS is not Newspoll, and it’s possible its continued devotion to landline polling (which I strongly believe to be not fully randomised) has meant its results have become total rubbish.  But if that’s not the case, the government should be rather worried.  The suggestion is that so far negative attacks on the new Opposition Leader have either not worked at all or even backfired. Opposition Leaders don’t lead by eleven points just because people like them.  Historically this sort of imbalance happens when governments are in deep trouble or their leaders are unpopular, or both …