Tasmanian Times

Image for Resurrection of the Ruddbot. No to offshore processing

REPLACING Julia Gillard with Kevin Rudd would take Labor from confronting a landslide defeat to a potentially election-winning position, according to an Age/Nielsen poll that also finds a slump in the PM’s approval to her lowest ever.

Labor’s two-party vote, steady on 42-58 per cent from last month, would jump to 52-48 per cent under Mr Rudd. The former prime minister, ousted more than a year ago, is preferred by 44 per cent of voters as ALP leader, more than twice Ms Gillard’s 19 per cent support.

Mr Rudd would take Labor’s primary vote of 27 per cent (down 1 point since last month) to 42 per cent, according to the poll of 1400 taken from Thursday to Saturday.

Ahead of special cabinet and caucus meetings this morning to deal with the asylum seeker policy crisis, some Labor MPs will be concerned that Ms Gillard’s determination to change the law to validate the Malaysian people swap is out of sync with public opinion. Only 25 per cent said people should be sent offshore to be processed (down 3 points since August), while 54 per cent (up a point) believed people should be allowed to land in Australia to be assessed. Sixteen per cent said the boats should be sent back out to sea.

Ms Gillard’s approval has fallen 6 points to 32 per cent. This is the lowest for a PM since Paul Keating rated 32 in August 1994. Her disapproval is up 5 points to 62 per cent. Ms Gillard’s ‘‘net approval’’ is now minus 30 - the lowest for a PM since Mr Keating in October 1993.

Tony Abbott’s approval is 43 per cent and his disapproval 52 per cent - both unchanged.

Mr Abbott has extended his lead as preferred PM to 48 per cent (up one) to Ms Gillard’s 40 per cent (down 4 points). The Coalition primary vote is steady on 48 per cent; the Greens are up a point to 13 per cent.

Labor’s popularity is highest in Victoria, although the Coalition has now edged ahead on the two-party vote.

When people are asked how they would vote if Mr Rudd replaced Ms Gillard, Labor’s primary vote rises by 15 points, taken from right and left. The Coalition falls to 43 per cent and the Greens to 9 per cent; the vote for small parties and independents also shrinks.

Defence Minister Stephen Smith, sometimes touted as a possible replacement for Ms Gillard, leads the also-rans in the preferred Labor leader list. He rates 10 per cent; Simon Crean 8 per cent; Bill Shorten 5 per cent and Greg Combet 4 per cent.

Pollster John Stirton urges caution about the big lift Mr Rudd gives the ALP vote. He says while there would certainly be a short-term boost, ‘‘the real question is what would happen when the novelty wears off’‘.

Mr Rudd was preferred to Ms Gillard among voters across the political spectrum, outpolling her 44 to 36 per cent among Labor voters, 43 to 6 per cent among Coalition supporters, and 41 to 31 among Green voters. Both Mr Smith and Mr Crean - also mentioned as a possible replacement if Labor decided to change - won above-average backing from Coalition supporters.

• Voters say no to offshore processing

ONLY one in five Labor voters supports Julia Gillard’s desire to press ahead with sending asylum seekers offshore for processing as cabinet this morning considers legislation to get around the High Court’s decision striking down the Malaysia solution.

In The Age/Nielsen poll, 22 per cent of ALP voters said asylum seekers should be sent to another country to be assessed, 62 per cent said they should be allowed to land in Australia and processed here and 13 per cent took the hardest option of wanting the boats sent back to sea.

Coalition voters were also unenthusiastic about the offshore solution with only 32 per cent supporting it, 44 per cent saying people should be processed here and 19 per cent wanting them sent back to sea.

Greens voters were overwhelmingly in favour of Australian processing (83 per cent), with just 10 per cent favouring an offshore solution and 6 per cent wanting boats turned around.

Women are more likely than men to support processing in Australia (58 to 51 per cent) as are younger voters, with almost two-thirds of those aged 18-24 in favour compared with less than half of those over 55. Capital city voters were more likely to support local processing than those in regional areas (58 to 48 per cent).

A special cabinet meeting today will consider the form of proposed legislation before caucus meets at 9am. The government priority is to try to revive the Malaysia deal.

Attorney-General Robert McClelland said cabinet would consider an amendment to the Migration Act. He said there were various ways this could be framed. It could be drafted to encompass three particular sites, one particular site, ‘‘or indeed, [give] a broader discretion to the minister. They are essentially the drafting options,’’ he told Channel Ten.

At a faction meeting before the full caucus meeting, the left is expected to support onshore processing although it is not united. A left convener, Doug Cameron, said yesterday: ‘‘The federal Labor Party should respect our obligations under the UN convention, the 2009 Labor platform and the High Court decision.’‘

• Senator Bob Brown: Australia’s shame

Today’s decision (Left defeated) marks a new day of shame in Australia’s history of mistreatment of asylum seekers, Greens Leader Bob Brown said.

“Offshore processing was the wrong answer under John Howard and it is wrong answer now,” Senator Brown told reporters in Canberra.

“Treating asylum seekers humanely by processing their claims in Australia is the best answer.

“It is the humane solution; it is the cost effective solution; it is the international legal solution and it is the popular solution – with 54% backing according to today’s opinion poll.

“The Greens will oppose the Government’s legislation at every stage.

“We urge the Government to rethink its approach and adopt onshore processing - the Australian solution.”