I was amused to be approvingly cited by Rick Pilkington in this article given that Mr Pilkington has frequently and vehemently disagreed with my assertions (and at times, demonstrations) here that the pulp mill issue’s actual electoral impact is relatively small.

Indeed in the article of mine that he links to there is no mention of the words “pulp”, “mill” or “Gunns” but there is mention of a wide range of other issues that have plagued the Bartlett Government during the most recent three-month polling period.

To link Bartlett’s decline so strongly with his failure to stand by his Nov 2008 “line in the sand” on the pulp mill is dubious given that Labor’s polling under Bartlett was, if anything, improving in the February and May 2009 EMRS polls before crashing sharply in the May to August period. 

There is no evidence that the pulp mill was the cause of that crash or even a major contributing factor.  It’s possible that it created a prism of doubt through which other issues were then viewed, but even if so, those issues had to exist, and they have existed in droves.  If the proposed Bell Bay pulp mill was really this Government’s biggest problem it would be sailing towards majority re-election.

“There is no evidence that the pulp mill was the cause of that crash or even a major contributing factor” (Kevin #1)

i do see the argument to disagree, i’d think that a ‘prism of doubt’ would be seen as a major contributing factor, whilst not the trigger. however i don’t have the time at present to disagree on the last line

Re joey’s post currently showing as #2: the whole “prism of doubt” idea is just a possibility that I don’t want to absolutely rule out - it’s not one for which there is actually any remotely reliable and significant evidence for at this stage.  My belief is that there could be some cross-contamination from the mill issue to the electorate’s strong reaction to other issues in the last six months, but that most of the reaction would be down to those issues themselves - and to the frequency of them in general much more than to any particular one.